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#AXON a hidden gem

JT001

07-Oct-2017 13:59 PM

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#AXON Axovant Sciences Ltd

“When opportunity comes, hit it with all you have.”

 

  September 26, 2017 Axovant (AXON)  announces negative topline results of Intepirdine Phase 3 MINDSET trial in Alzheimer’s disease. http://investors.axovant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/axovant-announces-negative-topline-results-intepirdine-phase-3 stock dropped -72% with share closed at $6.33.

  Statistically, there were over 240 Alzheimer’s studies over the last 13 years. The number of success for phase 3 is zero. Axovant just added their failed phase 3 to the stats, but is it over for this company? We do not think so, here are our brief bullish notes on why stock will rebound and should be trading in double digit again.

 

   Management:

  In horse race track, you bet on the jockey to lead the horse race to victory. In biotechnology stock, you bet on strong leadership to  lead the drug trial to victory.  Axovant leadership top notch CEO, David Hung.  A brief history of David Hung, Previously, he was a cofounder of Medivation, Inc (MDVN), a biopharmaceutical company which was acquired by Pfizer (PFE) for $81.50 per Medivation share in cash, for a total enterprise value of approximately $14 billion. With Axovant, Hung  serves as CEO and member of the board since April 2017. More notable names on Axovant board are: Marion McCourt, President & Chief Operating Officer. Kathryn Falberg, director. IIise Lombardo, senior Vice President , Clinical research. Mark Altmeyer, President of Axovant Sciences, the list continues with many years experience leaders. Please visit http://www.axovant.com/who-we-are/leadership-team/

 

Upcoming catalyst:

  1. HEADWAY-DLB: Phase2b study of Intepirdine expected Q4 2017

  2. Phase 2 study evaluating Nelotanserin for treatment of subjects with LBD. Expected timing: Q4 2017

  3. Phase 2 study evaluating nelotanserin for treatment of REM Behavior Disorder in subjects with LBD. Expected Q1 2018

February 13, 2017 , Axovant announces preliminary results from interim analysis of Phase 2 study investigational drug Nelotanserin in Lewy Body Dementia patients. Here are some keys highlights:

Interim Results

Pre-specified primary endpoints:

The mean change from baseline in the UPDRS Parts II + III exhibited statistically significant improvements (p-value < 0.05) for nelotanserin relative to placebo. This result is consistent across least squares and observed mean changes.

Safety analysis included measurement of the incidence of adverse events. There were no reported drug-related serious adverse events, and there were no adverse events that led to discontinuation of the study medication.

Secondary endpoints:

Secondary endpoints evaluated efficacy on multiple subscales from the SAPS including SAPS-PD, SAPS-PD-H, and SAPS-H. Axovant evaluated an internally developed, proprietary secondary endpoint to measure episodes of hallucinations using a patient diary. In this interim analysis, these secondary endpoints did not demonstrate statistically significant differences for nelotanserin relative to placebo.

Link http://investors.axovant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/axovant-sciences-announces-preliminary-results-interim-analysis

 

September 26, 2017 CEO, David Hung interview via CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/26/axovant-alzheimers-drug-fails-late-stage-trial.html

 

Insider buy:

David Hung 539,375 @ $18.54 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1636050/000120919117027436/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

Kathryne Falberg 53,937 @ $18.54 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1636050/000120919117027437/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

Anthony Vernon 53,937 @ $18.54 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1636050/000120919117027440/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

 

Reward outweigh the risk:

 With current depress stock price due to investors are expecting another future fail from the company, we think this as opportunity to buy and invest for potential surprise outcome as we lean heavy confident with CEO, David Hung. Risk price target is $3 if fail phase 2 LBD data, but the reward is $15+ is success. The company have multiples data coming.  We are strong believer, but of course we want to layout risk ,too. Alzheimer's incurable disease the chance of success is 1% and failure 99%. 

 

Disclaimer: I/we are long AXON and no plan to sell within the next three days. This is only our opinion and not investment advice. Always do your own due diligence and seek financial adviser for your investment. We are not responsible for you trading losses.

Comments


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Jj

08-Oct-2017 00:44 AM

IMO it will fail. They are recycling failed drugs.

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Jj

08-Oct-2017 00:46 AM

But if it succeed goes back to $30. 99. 9% sentiment so far are bearish.

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