The Biotech Calculator Success


10-Apr-2018 21:22 PM



     We created this Biotech Probability Calculator with the purpose to help investors and traders be better informed when holding through the biotech binary event. There is no guaranteed success or failure, but with mathematics statistics formula then the odd is on your side. 

     Back in September 2015, I made a huge mistake by holding through the biotech binary event for Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals Inc (TTPH:NASDAQ). The company was trading around $43ish per share then, (TTPH) was about to release their second Phase 3 study; the first study was a success. I was confident this second study will be, too. I did a very good thorough due diligence, I ignored all the bear thesis, and only the listen to the bull thesis. To make a long story short, the company failed their study and stock tanked to $8ish per share. I was in shocked, just like many investors out there. I took some time off to recollect my thoughts, and ask myself questions, "How can I prevent this happened to me again and other investors out there? There are a lot of biotech investors out there, but no science background, how can I help them? What if I can create something to bring awareness to investors to minimize their investment losses?

    I started to keep track as many biotech data as I can, the diseases, the phases it's in and their market cap. Fast forward to 2017, we created the #BiotechCalculator it was not easy at all because we want to make it as simple as possible with 1,2,3 steps. There is unique statistics formula behind this #BiotechCalculator with limited data it has 83% success rate predicting the trial data outcome. We think this is an amazing number and we decided to share with the biotech community. 

     This is not to be used as investment advice, but rather an extra tool guide to help investors make their decision. For the chartist out there, think of it as the overlays like Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku Cloud or Parabolic SAR etc. Be open-minded because it can help you save or make money. 

     How to use the #BiotechCalculator and explanation

     How well has the #BiotechCalculator do lately? it predicted the right outcome for these four biotech clinical data

  1. Incyte Corp (INCY:NASDAQ) - stock dropped -22.93% on failed Phase 3
  2. Menlo Therapeutics Inc (MNLO:NASDAQ)  stock dropped -76.80% on failed Phase 2
  3. vTv Therapeutics Inc (VTVT:NASDAQ) stock dropped -78.08% on failed Phase 3
  4. Selecta Biosciences Inc (SELB:NASDAQ) stock dropped -15.22% in Phase 2. The company press release said it's positive, but the stock reaction doesn't match up. The #BiotechCalculator say it's a failure. Here is the company press and you can decide

    We ran this result before the data come out. As you can see, the result speaks for itself.  Not everything is correct with #BiotechCalculator it predicted Dermira Inc (DERM:NASDAQ) to be a success, but it turned out to be a failure.


    There is no 100% guaranteed with the biotech binary event, but rather be more right than wrong and that's what count. It's the same with making investment or trading, you rather more winners than losers. Losses are part of this business, but your attitude to handle those losses determine your future success. Please use our #BiotechCalculator with the open-minded thinking.

    We wish you success in your future investment. Comments are welcome.


Twitter: @BiotechMoney18





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Disclaimer! This is NOT an investment advice. The data result herein is purely speculation only. You must do your own due diligence and mitigate your risk. You acknowledge that will not be held responsible and accountable for any losses you may incur using our Biotech Data Calculator. Please consult your own financial adviser before executing trades.